July 30, 2008 | In: Uncategorized
Prediction: Good iPhone Apps Will Be Free and Apple Will Develop Ad Network
As I wait for my iPhone order to be filled (my local AT&T store says it will be anywhere from 10 to 21 days), I am researching the large number of iPhone apps I will have access to very soon. I’ve noticed that there seems to be many quality apps that cost money but also many quality apps that are free. What is the future of iPhone apps?
I’ll tell you. All the good iPhone apps will eventually be free. Furthermore (you heard it here first people), Apple is going to develop an iPhone ad network. I know what you’re thinking. I’m crazy. Why would Apple, a company that specializes in hardware and software, dive into the crowded advertising network market? Let’s discuss it further.
Good iPhone Apps Will Be Free
The real useful iPhone apps are ones that connect us with the rest of the world. While Super Monkey Ball might be fun, it’s just a game. Games get old fast. The best apps are the ones that connect us with our already existing web applications (like Pandora, Facebook, and AIM). Almost all, if not all, of these applications are free. That’s because these apps aren’t there to make money. They’re there to build the user base for those companies. The only monetizing that might come from these apps is advertising based.
So while in the present time you have every amateur entrepreneur trying to scrape some extra dollars from the iPhone folk, the public will get smart and stop paying for most of those apps after a while. And unless it’s a revolutionary app, some developer will code up a duplicate on a sleepless weekend and give it away for free. So let’s go to the next point.
Apple will develop an iPhone ad network
Thousands of apps have been downloaded from the app store. Many of them were paid for. The app store is a very large potential revenue stream for Apple. The problem is that most of the apps will be free (see above). That means there won’t be another money tree in the Apple garden…or will there? As more apps become free and lean towards advertising for revenue, Apple will get jealous. And you will eventually see the Apple iPhone Advertising Network.
This network will allow application developers to focus on building great applications and receive revenue from ads on the top or bottom of the screen as their app is displayed. Apple will take a cut from this revenue. Whether Apple teams up with an advertising leader for this (Google most likely) or build it on their own from scratch, you will see an Apple advertising network in the next 12-18 months. Just watch.
6 Responses to Prediction: Good iPhone Apps Will Be Free and Apple Will Develop Ad Network
Keyan
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:57 am
Well, I’m one of those people thinking you’re crazy. Apple will never take responsibility for stealing screen real estate.
While I understand your reasoning — Apple, eventually, doesn’t get added revenue for AppStore maintenance — it’s more likely they increase, or change, models for developer fees. Apple post-realization: “Apps that advertise will be charged X amount, X amount monthly, X percentage to develop for the iPhone, etc.” They might even siphon the cost into the handset.
However, Apple will never diminish a product’s performance and, simultaneously, take the money in plain sight. Like any heavily brand-driven company, Apple will only profit if appearing above the fray.
Keyan
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:01 am
By the way, great blog. And how about letting a little RSS in your life?
Thorbjørn Kühl
August 3rd, 2008 at 3:20 am
Don’t you think Apple is already displaying ads in AppStore? What about those “featured Apps”? do you think they get that placement because they are so great?
More likely they’re already letting both paid and free App developers buy featured position for x amount of time or views.
And Keyan: http://crastinate.com/feed/
Scottybe
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 am
I disagree, but just hope I’m right.
Two reasons:
1) Apple wants to distinguish itself from Microsoft and Google as a “premium” brand. Ads are and look cheap.
2) Ad revenue is historically unpredictable. As soon as there’s a downward trend, the company stock will suffer. Just look at companies like Yahoo! for an example. I don’t think Apple leadership will want to be subject to that, if even in a small way.
joecab
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 am
I don’t agree. Apple knows consumers hate intrusions like ads in things they’ve already paid for, so I don’t see it happening. There’s a reason that when you buy a MacBook it doesn’t have a single sticker anywhere on it (and Intel would pay them a pretty penny to do that, believe you me).
Justin
September 9th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Here you go:
http://gigaom.com/2008/09/08/is-iphone-the-next-ad-frontier/